Tag Archives: Bill Gates

The Problem with ‘Futurology’

What’s your favourite terrible technological prediction?  There are plenty to choose from, that’s for sure.  The following is just a brief list of the most infamous computing-based futurology howlers (oldest to newest):

  1. “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”, Thomas Watson: IBM chairman (1943) (* or was it someone else?)
  2. Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons”, Popular Mechanics (1949)
  3. “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year”, Prentice Hall: Business Books Editor (1957)
  4. “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”, Ken Olsen: DEC founder (1977)
  5. “640K ought to be enough for anybody”, Bill Gates (1981) (* or did he really?)
  6. “We will never make a 32-bit operating system”, Bill Gates (1989)
  7. “Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time”, Bill Gates (2004)
  8. “Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput”, Alan Sugar (2005)

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